Morgan Stanley slashes its oil price forecast for next year by $28. The oil price has fallen by more than a dollar as it sinks towards its weakest point since October 2009 after Morgan Stanley forecast that oversupply would peak in 2015.
According to Vladimir Tikhomirov, an economist at Russian bank BKF, the two main factors responsible for Russia’s economic woes – sanctions and a low oil price – probably won’t change any time soon. “Oil has a stronger effect on the economy than sanctions, and the oil price and sanctions are speeding up macroeconomic processes that were already there,” Tikhomirov says. “The economy was slowing down due to structural difficulties even when oil prices were high.
A falling oil is good for the US consumer and good for the US economy. Transport costs feed into the price of every physical product, so if oil gets cheaper, everything gets cheaper. If the oil prices falls too far, however, the USA’s fracking boom will come to an end.